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Glossary, verdict rules, underwriting assumptions, and data refresh — all rendered from the same source the code runs.
Glossary
The same data behind the dotted-underline terms across the siteARV
After-Repair ValueThe price this home should sell for once renovations are complete. Estimated from nearby recently renovated sales (comps).
Comps
Comparable SalesSimilar homes that sold recently, close by. They are the entire basis of the valuation — the fewer the comps, the less trustworthy the estimate.
DOM
Days on MarketHow long the listing has been active. The longer it sits, the harder it is to sell — and the more likely the seller accepts a lower offer.
$/sqft
Price per Square FootThe standard unit price for US homes. Comparing $/sqft against nearby sales shows whether a listing is priced high or low for its area.
Target Buy
Target Purchase PriceThe model's suggested offer: the price at which the deal still earns a reasonable profit after rehab and all costs. Usually below list price.
Gross Spread
Gross SpreadSale price minus purchase price, before subtracting rehab, holding costs, or commissions. Gross spread is NOT profit.
Net Profit
Net ProfitWhat is left after subtracting the purchase price, rehab, holding costs, loan interest, and both sides' transaction costs (pre-tax).
Rehab Estimate
Renovation Budget EstimateEstimated from square footage × historical renovation costs for similar flips — it is not a contractor quote. Treat it as an order of magnitude until you have on-site bids.
Deal Score
Composite Deal ScoreA 0-100 ranking score blended from rules and machine-learning models. It is for sorting, not a probability of profit; 80+ is roughly the top 10%.
Evidence Grade
Evidence GradeHow hard the valuation evidence is, combining comp count, distance, recency, and confidence: Strong / Moderate / Weak / Insufficient.
ARV Confidence
Valuation Confidence0-100, how confident the model is in its after-repair value. Below 40 the model abstains entirely (gray light).
Haircut
Valuation Risk HaircutA deliberate discount applied to the after-repair value — the fewer the comps and the older the home, the bigger the cut. Better to understate the sale price than overstate your profit.
70% Rule
The 70% RuleA flipper's rule of thumb: purchase price + rehab should not exceed 70% of the after-repair value, leaving 30% to cover costs and profit.
Negotiation Leverage
Negotiation LeverageHow likely the seller is to accept a lower offer, based on days on market, price-cut history, and how often nearby sales close below list.
Retail-Ready Risk
Already-Renovated RiskPhotos or the description suggest the home has already been renovated — meaning the flip upside may already be baked into the list price.
Holding Cost
Holding CostProperty tax, insurance, utilities, and loan interest while you own the home. The longer the project runs, the higher it climbs — the cost novices most often underestimate.
Points
Loan PointsA one-time loan fee; 1 point = 1% of the loan amount. Hard-money loans commonly used for flips typically charge 1-3 points.
MLS
Multiple Listing ServiceThe shared listing database used by US agents — this tool's data source (via the Trestle API). Quote the MLS # when talking to an agent.
Flip Pair
Historical Flip PairA buy-then-sell record of the same home (a repeat sale). The tool learns each area's real flip spreads and timelines from these.
Verdict Rules
These rules are rendered from the same file the verdict engine runs — they cannot drift apart.- ⚪ Insufficient Data: fewer than 3 comparable sales, or valuation confidence below 40/100. The model abstains from a conclusion; if you are still interested, a manual pricing review is required.
- 🟢 Worth Viewing: the conservative case (valuing the home at the low end of its range) does not lose money, evidence is at least Moderate, the composite score is ≥ 80, and there is no high "already renovated" risk flag.
- 🟡 Negotiate First: the deal does not pencil at list price, but works at the model's target price, or negotiation signals are strong (negotiation score ≥ 20).
- 🔴 Not Recommended: little or no profit even at the target price, or too many risk flags.
- A green light means the home is worth your time to view in person — it is not a buy order. Every verdict comes with its "why" and its "what could go wrong".
Underwriting Assumptions
The shared assumptions behind every profit estimate| Item | Value | What it means |
|---|---|---|
| Rehab factor | 50% of historical per-sqft renovation cost for similar flips | An optimistic screening assumption used only for first-pass ranking; replace it with contractor bids when you have them. |
| Property tax | 1.25% / yr | Accrued at 1.25% of the purchase price per year while you hold — the longer the hold, the more you pay. |
| Selling costs | 4% | 4% of the sale price, covering agent commissions and seller-side closing costs. |
| Buyer closing | 1% | 1% of the purchase price, covering title, escrow, and other buyer-side closing costs. |
| Loan-to-value | 75% | Assumes 75% of the purchase price is financed; the remaining 25% is your own cash. |
| Annual interest | 10% | A typical hard-money loan rate for flips, accrued over the holding months. |
| Loan points | 2 points | A one-time fee of 2% of the loan amount, paid at funding (1 point = 1% of the loan). |
| Hold period | Model-estimated per deal | Expected months from purchase to resale, inferred from historical flip timelines in the area; it drives taxes and interest directly. |
All profit figures are pre-tax. Non-resident status (e.g. FIRPTA withholding) can materially change your take-home — consult a tax advisor.
Model Track Record
published so you can judge how much to trust the numbersApplying today's cost assumptions to the 8,995 historical flips the pipeline has detected (real purchase and resale prices, modeled costs):
- 9.5% would have been profitable under the conservative cost stack
- 19.7% under the baseline stack (median net profit $-137,904)
- 39.1% under the optimistic stack
Actual rehab spend per flip is unknown, so these calibrate our cost assumptions — they are not audited investor P&L. The spread between the three numbers is the honest width of the model's uncertainty.
ARV accuracy: the ARV backtest has not been run on this deployment yet (scripts/backtest_arv_model.py scores past predictions against actual sale prices and publishes the error here).
Why is a home missing?
Listings matching any of the following are hard-filtered and never appear in the candidate list:
- Not an active listing: Homes under contract, pending, or closed never enter the candidate pool; Coming Soon listings are not yet open and are not underwritten either.
- Missing coordinates or key fields: Without coordinates, square footage, or a list price the model cannot find comps or run the numbers, so the listing is skipped.
- Built too recently: Homes built in the last few years usually leave no renovation upside — they are not what this tool looks for.
- Description indicates fully renovated: Listings described as fully remodeled or turnkey have most of the flip upside already priced in, so they are not treated as rehab candidates.
- Too few comps to underwrite: When too few similar nearby sales exist, the model cannot produce a trustworthy valuation — better to show nothing than to dress up a guess as certainty.
For a case-by-case check, contact the data team.
Data Status & Refresh
FAQ
Why are there so few green lights?
A green light requires no loss even in the conservative case, evidence of at least Moderate, and a top composite score — rarity is by design. The tool's value is filtering out the vast majority of listings that are not worth your time, not padding a page with good-looking numbers.
What does a score of 86 mean?
The composite score is a 0-100 blend of rules and machine-learning models, used only for ranking. It is not a profit probability: 86 does not mean an 86% chance of making money — it only means the deal ranks ahead of the vast majority of active listings.
How often does data refresh?
Data refreshes automatically once a day (see Data Status & Refresh above for the exact time), covering new listings, price cuts, status changes, and delistings. The nav bar shows when data was last updated.
Where does the data come from?
Listing data comes from the US MLS via the Trestle API. Listing text is shown as-is from the source — the tool does not rewrite it, to avoid introducing errors. Key terms are explained in the glossary above.
Why can the profit range go negative?
The conservative case assumes the home sells at the low end of its value range; a negative number means the deal can lose money if the market softens or the valuation proves optimistic. Read the left end of the range first and ask whether you could absorb that loss before deciding to view.