Recommended for Candidate Scoring / ARV
0-60m Road Exposure Penalty
| Road Class | Recommended Price Adjustment | DOM / Liquidity Risk | Local Matched Evidence |
| Freeway / motorway | 15.5% ARV haircut | +64.4% median; +10.0 days (days CI +4.0 to +14.0) | median -15.52%, 95% CI -19.40% to -10.18% |
| Primary arterial | 4.6% ARV haircut | +33.3% median; +4.5 days (days CI +1.0 to +8.0) | median -4.59%, 95% CI -6.28% to -3.12% |
| Secondary arterial | 5.3% ARV haircut | +22.4% median; +3.0 days (days CI +1.0 to +5.0) | median -5.34%, 95% CI -6.76% to -4.16% |
| Trunk / PCH-like corridor | 0% default; local comps only | +84.0% median; +15.0 days (days CI +2.0 to +51.0) | price not significant: median +4.37%, 95% CI -4.26% to +18.54% |
Use same-exposure local comps first. Apply this penalty only when quiet comps are needed as substitutes or when scoring active candidates.
Local Matched Price Impact
Local Matched Significance
Median effects use bootstrap 95% confidence intervals. Directional robustness is checked with a two-sided sign test.
| Outcome | Road Class | Matched | Median Effect |
Bootstrap 95% CI | Mean Effect | Sign-test p | Sig. |
| ppsf_delta_pct | motorway | 102 | -15.52 % | -19.40 to -10.18 | -14.48 % | 0.000000 | *** |
| ppsf_delta_pct | primary | 467 | -4.59 % | -6.28 to -3.12 | -2.04 % | 0.000000 | *** |
| ppsf_delta_pct | secondary | 681 | -5.34 % | -6.76 to -4.16 | -4.14 % | 0.000000 | *** |
| ppsf_delta_pct | trunk | 76 | +4.37 % | -4.26 to +18.54 | +13.25 % | 0.301898 | |
| dom_delta_pct | motorway | 102 | +64.41 % | +39.66 to +144.94 | +239.83 % | 0.000096 | *** |
| dom_delta_pct | primary | 467 | +33.33 % | +12.50 to +64.29 | +174.52 % | 0.002815 | ** |
| dom_delta_pct | secondary | 681 | +22.45 % | +9.68 to +40.00 | +195.72 % | 0.000681 | *** |
| dom_delta_pct | trunk | 76 | +84.05 % | +7.69 to +178.26 | +815.78 % | 0.020921 | * |
| dom_delta_days | motorway | 102 | +10.00 days | +4.00 to +14.00 | +23.26 days | 0.000096 | *** |
| dom_delta_days | primary | 467 | +4.50 days | +1.00 to +8.00 | +20.84 days | 0.002815 | ** |
| dom_delta_days | secondary | 681 | +3.00 days | +1.00 to +5.00 | +19.19 days | 0.000681 | *** |
| dom_delta_days | trunk | 76 | +15.00 days | +2.00 to +51.00 | +46.12 days | 0.020921 | * |
Local Matched Quiet Comps
Each 0-60m road-exposed sale is compared against same-city quiet comps within expanding radius,
constrained by sale date, living area, and bed/bath similarity. Quiet comps require motorway, trunk, primary, and secondary roads all to be more than 200m away.
| Road Class | Treated Pool | Matched | Median $/sqft Delta |
Avg $/sqft Delta | Median DOM Days | Median DOM % | Avg DOM Days |
Median Controls | Median Radius |
| motorway | 102 | 102 | -15.52% | -14.48% | +10.0 | +64.41% | +23.3 | 10.0 | 0.50 mi |
| trunk | 77 | 76 | +4.37% | +13.25% | +15.0 | +84.04% | +46.1 | 7.0 | 0.50 mi |
| primary | 468 | 467 | -4.59% | -2.04% | +4.5 | +33.33% | +20.8 | 13.0 | 0.50 mi |
| secondary | 685 | 681 | -5.34% | -4.14% | +3.0 | +22.45% | +19.2 | 12.0 | 0.50 mi |
Cleaner Test: 0-60m vs Quiet Baseline
Baseline requires freeway/trunk, primary, and secondary roads all to be more than 200m away.
Primary treatment excludes homes within 200m of freeway/trunk; secondary treatment excludes homes within 200m of freeway/trunk or primary roads.
| Outcome | Road Class | Treatment Sales | Quiet Baseline |
Impact | 95% CI | p-value | Sig. |
| price_per_sqft | freeway_trunk | 179 | 7,493 | -2.93% | -7.42% to +1.78% | 0.218952 | |
| price_per_sqft | primary | 468 | 7,493 | -5.40% | -7.36% to -3.40% | 0.000000 | *** |
| price_per_sqft | secondary | 685 | 7,493 | -5.95% | -7.55% to -4.32% | 0.000000 | *** |
| dom | freeway_trunk | 179 | 7,493 | +56.05% | +28.62% to +89.33% | 0.000006 | *** |
| dom | primary | 468 | 7,493 | +29.53% | +15.97% to +44.68% | 0.000005 | *** |
| dom | secondary | 685 | 7,493 | +15.53% | +4.70% to +27.48% | 0.004047 | ** |
OLS Significance Test: 0-60m vs 600m+
Diagnostic model controls for city, ZIP, sale quarter, living area, bed/bath count, and age. Standard errors are HC1 robust.
| Outcome | Road Class | Sales | Impact | 95% CI | p-value | Sig. |
| price_per_sqft | motorway/trunk | 179 | -1.20% | -5.76% to +3.59% | 0.618122 | |
| price_per_sqft | primary | 491 | -4.60% | -6.61% to -2.54% | 0.000015 | *** |
| price_per_sqft | secondary | 811 | -5.69% | -7.28% to -4.07% | 0.000000 | *** |
| price_per_sqft | tertiary | 2,647 | +0.90% | -0.93% to +2.75% | 0.337040 | |
| dom | motorway/trunk | 179 | +57.42% | +29.65% to +91.13% | 0.000005 | *** |
| dom | primary | 491 | +23.69% | +10.83% to +38.05% | 0.000148 | *** |
| dom | secondary | 811 | +8.26% | -1.68% to +19.19% | 0.106212 | |
| dom | tertiary | 2,647 | +11.42% | +0.17% to +23.93% | 0.046514 | * |
Diagnostic: Adjusted $/sqft Delta vs 600m+
Diagnostic: Adjusted DOM Delta vs 600m+
Diagnostic Matrix Detail
| Road Class | Bucket | Sales | Median Price | Median $/sqft |
Median DOM | Adj $/sqft | Adj DOM | Penalty | Confidence |
| motorway/trunk | 0-60m | 179 | $1,515,000 | $855 | 26.0 | -6.24% | +63.90% | 6.24% | medium |
| motorway/trunk | 60-150m | 522 | $1,644,500 | $846 | 20.0 | -1.52% | +31.36% | 1.52% | high |
| motorway/trunk | 150-300m | 970 | $1,603,000 | $847 | 16.0 | +0.22% | +11.56% | 0.00% | high |
| motorway/trunk | 300-600m | 2,023 | $1,720,000 | $831 | 14.0 | -0.72% | +6.54% | 0.72% | high |
| motorway/trunk | 600m+ | 9,800 | $1,600,000 | $796 | 13.0 | +0.00% | +0.00% | 0.00% | high |
| primary | 0-60m | 491 | $1,425,000 | $771 | 18.0 | -3.24% | +21.90% | 3.24% | high |
| primary | 60-150m | 1,121 | $1,440,000 | $776 | 12.0 | -1.65% | -13.74% | 1.65% | high |
| primary | 150-300m | 1,912 | $1,490,000 | $774 | 12.0 | -1.18% | -9.08% | 1.18% | high |
| primary | 300-600m | 3,550 | $1,499,250 | $793 | 13.0 | +0.09% | -8.27% | 0.00% | high |
| primary | 600m+ | 6,420 | $1,790,000 | $841 | 16.0 | +0.00% | +0.00% | 0.00% | high |
| secondary | 0-60m | 811 | $1,500,000 | $761 | 15.0 | -3.92% | +7.18% | 3.92% | high |
| secondary | 60-150m | 1,741 | $1,530,000 | $792 | 13.0 | -1.78% | -4.60% | 1.78% | high |
| secondary | 150-300m | 2,695 | $1,545,000 | $798 | 13.0 | -1.08% | -5.31% | 1.08% | high |
| secondary | 300-600m | 4,073 | $1,625,000 | $806 | 14.0 | -0.33% | -1.52% | 0.33% | high |
| secondary | 600m+ | 4,174 | $1,745,000 | $829 | 15.0 | +0.00% | +0.00% | 0.00% | high |
| tertiary | 0-60m | 2,647 | $1,720,000 | $846 | 16.0 | +0.74% | +13.52% | 0.00% | high |
| tertiary | 60-150m | 3,805 | $1,750,000 | $839 | 15.0 | +2.57% | +5.81% | 0.00% | high |
| tertiary | 150-300m | 3,511 | $1,600,000 | $812 | 13.0 | +3.03% | -0.21% | 0.00% | high |
| tertiary | 300-600m | 2,757 | $1,400,000 | $752 | 12.0 | +2.40% | -2.20% | 0.00% | high |
| tertiary | 600m+ | 774 | $1,479,250 | $723 | 14.0 | +0.00% | +0.00% | 0.00% | high |